The five lessons of Labour Conference

New Statesman Keir Starmer has ended leadership speculation – for now In advance of the conference, some MPs speculated that Keir Starmer could be out of Downing Street by Christmas. The Prime Minister desperately needed to prove otherwise – and he succeeded. Despite his approval ratings reaching a nadir, Starmer appeared confident rather than despondent and delivered what was his best-received speech as leader. For months he has suffered from the perception that he is a mere puppet of his advisers – the PM did, after all, fail to read a speech as totemic as “Island of strangers” before he gave it. But yesterday Starmer made an argument that was distinctly his own – having taken a more direct role in the drafting process – and assailed Reform with a passion and conviction that many in Labour have long craved. But there is an unofficial contest to succeed him By declaring before conference that MPs had invited him to challenge Starmer, Andy Burnham guaranteed the leadership question would be openly discussed. But the Manchester mayor had an unhappy few days, losing control of a debate he had launched. By Monday afternoon, after being rebuked by MPs from all sides, Burnham had been forced to state that he believed Starmer was the best person to lead Labour (later leaving before his speech). Yet you didn’t need to go far to find MPs questioning whether Starmer can survive beyond May 2026 – when Labour risks defeat in Scotland, Wales (for the first time in electoral history) and London. That’s why senior cabinet ministers, such as Shabana Mahmood and Wes Streeting, are now being routinely assessed as alternative leaders. “You shouldn’t believe anyone in politics who says they’re not ambitious about the top job because they’re basically lying,” said Mahmood with striking candour yesterday, which was an indication of how quickly this debate has accelerated. There might not be a vacancy but there is certainly a contest. Angela Rayner will be back The former deputy prime minister was a rare absence at this conference, present only in the few surviving copies of the programme (which was officially withdrawn). But her name was repeatedly invoked on the conference platform by cabinet ministers including David Lammy, Peter Kyle, Steve Reed and, most memorably, Wes Streeting. “We want her back,” the Health Secretary declared, adding, as applause resounded, “we’ll definitely make sure she sees that, we need her back” (in what some saw as a demonstration of the traditional Blairite’s pluralism). A leadership contest this year would have come too early for Rayner, who was the front-runner until her resignation a month ago. But MPs now expect her to play a pivotal role, whether running herself – having been aided by Burnham’s false start – or backing an alternative. The affection for Rayner from all wings of Labour and her deep trade union connections mean that few in the party could wield greater influence. Starmer is showing his party more love For months, polls have shown that most Labour members believe the government is heading in the wrong direction (it’s one reason why the critical but measured Lucy Powell is expected to win the deputy leadership). They were exasperated by winter fuel payment cuts, the welfare bill and Starmer’s immigration rhetoric. But the Prime Minister, who had sometimes appeared detached from his own party, showed it more love this week. He hailed the Hillsborough bill and the recognition of Palestine, and signalled that the two-child benefit limit – despised by members but popular among voters – would be abolished at the Budget (with Treasury officials exploring the option of a tapered system). Starmer’s conference speech was a reminder of his roots in Labour’s soft left: economically interventionist and socially progressive. The PM still challenged his party: he included wealth tax supporters in his assault on “snake oil merchants”, defended Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules and warned that immigration was still too high. But rather than “country first, party second”, this week felt more like “country and party first”. Labour has gone to war with Reform – and that’s a risk for Starmer Until this conference, Labour’s case against Reform was more practical than moral. “Unrealistic, unworkable and unfunded,” was how No 10 described Nigel Farage’s mass deportation plan only a week ago. But this conference saw a sharp escalation in hostilities. Starmer, in an unplanned remark to the BBC, condemned Reform’s policy as “racist” and then doubled down in his speech, vowing to fight Britain’s new ethno-nationalist right with “everything we’ve got”. Starmer is casting the next election as something that transcends past contests – “a battle for the soul of the country”. Such declarations roused activists, yet there is a risk here for the Prime Minister. If it is truly a moral duty for Labour to defeat Reform then Starmer’s critics will later riposte that he has an obligation to stand down if he is incapable of doing so. This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here